The Art of Conflict Foresight
Introducing a New Model for Leading Stakeholders through Complex Change
Have you heard of the concept of “the elephant and the rider”? Developed by psychologist Jonathan Haidt, the idea is that we all have within us a Rider — our rational side. And an Elephant — our emotional side. The Rider is sitting on top, holding the reins; we think it’s in charge.
However, think about how much bigger the Elephant is compared to the Rider. As Chip and Dan Heath put it in Switch, “Anytime the six-ton Elephant and the Rider disagree about which direction to go, the Rider is going to lose. He’s completely overmatched.”
And there isn’t just one elephant…
The elephant-and-rider metaphor is critical for understanding how to lead change. But for changes that are especially complex, we need to take it further. Because there isn’t just one elephant in any of our heads. Pixar depicted this beautifully in the film Inside Out (pictured at left), where we see the emotions of Anger, Disgust, Fear, Joy, and Sadness alternating who takes command in the main character Riley’s head. Similarly, in the world of psychotherapy, Dr. Richard Schwartz’s model — called internal family systems — is about how each of us has different parts within ourselves.
When we’re leading change in organizations, it’s sometimes easy to reduce things to a binary: who is “for” vs. “against” change. But binary thinking is what leads to high conflict (conflict that takes on a life of its own, where nobody wins) vs. healthy conflict (where necessary friction leads to a better outcome). Plus, the truth is usually much more complex than who is “for” or “against” any change.
Learning from all the elephants: the Conflict Foresight Model
Across any change process, we all have multiple, conflicting thoughts and emotions. Part of us feels excited about a new challenge, but another part of us is anxious or skeptical. One of our key stakeholders may express optimism about the future, but then note dismay soon after. Our specific objections to a change might vary from day to day — and even seem in conflict with one another.
Many prefer to ignore the negative parts — whether within us or others — hoping that they’ll go away. However, ignoring these parts of ourselves often just leads them to clamor to be heard and go on overdrive, leading to high conflict. Additionally, each of the parts within us has something valuable to teach us about how to ensure the change is successful.
After conversations with hundreds of leaders about the difficulties of leading complex change, I developed the Conflict Foresight Model as a way to get ahead of potential conflicts, using stakeholder concerns (i.e., the many different elephants within all of our heads) to improve — rather than impede — change leadership. Scroll through the slides below to learn more.
